ENT14: Demographic changes

Background and contents

The demography in national perspective develops rather similar in most (Western) European countries, especially regarding the growing number of the elderly (relatively and absolutely).

The EU-25 countries possessed 463 million people in 2006, a total projected to shrink to 449 million by 2050, a drop of 14 million people. Many European women are putting off their first child in order to concentrate on their education or career. For this reason among others, an average woman bears just 1.5 children, whereas at least two births are required to maintain ’replacement fertility’. At the moment the share of elderly (65+) in the total population is 17% on average. This will increase to 25% – 30% in 2050. The median age today is about 40 years and will increase from 44 years in 2025 to approximately 47 years in 2050.

Looking at the size of the households, one can observe a drop from 3.3 members per household in 1960 to 2.5 in 2001. The expectation is a further drop to 2.1 – 2.3 by 2025.

In addition to these developments, the effects on the transport system have also quite large similarities. National governments in Europe are looking for solutions to deal with these developments and effects. In 2005, the European Commission started to participate in this discussion by publishing a Green Paper1.


Key ideas and objectives

KEEP MOVING has the following three strategic objectives:

  1. Identify the trans-national research issues in the field of demographic changes and transport in terms of knowledge, technologies and services
  2. Provide well based information for transport policies and transport research policies of the national governments
  3. Develop trans-national input for the discussion at the European level

 
The thematic approach of KEEP MOVING consists of 6 themes related to demographic changes and transport:

  • Mobility for the elderly, disabled and children
  • Infrastructure development
  • Traffic safety
  • Traffic security (crime)
  • Mobility is sparsely populated areas and growing cities
  • Horizontal issues

Participating countries

France, Germany, The Netherlands, Sweden
associated Partner: Belgium

Expected results and aim of cooperation

During the whole period of the programme (2007 - 2009) joint calls are envisaged to be published. The calls can comprise one single theme as well as a combination of several themes. The calls should lead to trans-national projects that provide possible solutions and answers for the future problems deriving from the expected demographic changes in Europe.

Status and intermediate results

  • Preparation and Signing of an Letter of intend
  • Formulation of an strategic European research programme paper on demographic changes and transport 2007 – 2009 including the conceptual framework and all relevant research themes and topics
  • Preparation of the first call: Improving the mobility of the elderly

Action group leader

Rotating System:

Action group leader 2006: Tobias Thomae, Federal Ministry of Economics and Technology (BMWi)
Tobias.Thomae[at]bmwi.bund.de

Action group leader 2007: Claes Unge, VINNOVA
claes.unge[at]vinnova.se

Action group support

Sieds Halbesma, KiM Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis
sieds.halbesma[at]minvenw.nl


Nicole Ankelin, TÜV Rheinland Group, Germany
nicole.ankelin[at]de.tuv.com

 
1The Green Paper is titled: Confronting Demographic Change: a New Solidarity Between the Generations